Divisi
If the word "El Niño" makes you brace for drought, brace for the opposite this year. In East Africa, El Niño usually pushes the October–December short rains above normal — forecasters already put the flood risk in the eastern Horn for late 2026 (FEWS NET), and Kenya's own Meteorological Department has warned of the same, flagging a high chance of El Niño enhancing the short rains and building flood risk late in the year (the Kenya Times, reporting the Kenya Meteorological Department). Too much water, not too little, is the danger — and it is one you can plan for, and even turn into a strong business year.
Will El Niño bring drought or floods to East Africa in 2026?
For most of the region, floods. An El Niño tilts the odds toward a wetter-than-usual short rains across much of equatorial East Africa — if you want the full picture of why, start with what El Niño is and what it means for your farm, the opener in this series. The last two strong El Niños tell the story: in October–December 1997, equatorial East Africa recorded rainfall 5 to 10 times normal in places, with disastrous flooding (NOAA CPC); the 2023 short rains again flooded the eastern Horn — while also refreshing pasture and lifting crop prospects (FEWS NET). The clear exception is highland and northern Ethiopia, which can lean drier — if you farm there, follow the Ethiopia short-season guide instead.
| Where you farm | Likely short-rains signal, Oct–Dec 2026 |
|---|---|
| Kenya, southern Somalia, eastern lowlands | Heavier rains, real flood risk |
| Uganda, northern Tanzania | Wetter than normal |
| Northern & highland Ethiopia | Can lean drier — confirm locally |
When will the heavy short rains start?
The short rains normally run October to December, and an El Niño year often starts strong and lasts longer. From September, read the seasonal forecast before you plant and treat the first heavy storms as proof your drainage and higher-ground plans are already finished — not the day to start digging.
How do I stop my crops rotting — and what should I plant?
When water sits around roots for more than a day or two it starves them of air, and they rot. Lift the crop above the water, move the water away, and pick varieties that reach harvest before the wettest weeks.
| Do this before the short rains | How to do it |
|---|---|
| Lift the crop onto broad beds or ridges | Shape beds about 80 cm wide with a drainage furrow between them about 20 cm wide and 15 cm deep, so the roots sit clear of standing water (broad-bed-and-furrow trial on waterlogged Ethiopian Vertisols) |
| Run every furrow to a lower outlet | Cut the furrows slightly downhill so rainwater leaves the plot fast instead of pooling |
| Use your higher ground first | Keep your lowest plots for last — they flood first |
Then choose varieties that escape the wettest weeks:
- Early maize — Katumani Composite B and similar dryland types mature in about 90–120 days (infonet-biovision).
- Early green gram — improved varieties mature in about 65–70 days (KALRO), a fast legume that clears the field before the peak wet.
Wet, humid weeks are prime time for maize leaf diseases like grey leaf spot (Cercospora zeae-maydis) (Plantwise). Walk your rows at least twice a week once the crop is knee-high, check the underside of the lower leaves, and act as soon as you see the first grey, rectangular lesions along the veins — don't wait for the whole leaf to go. Ask your stockist for seed rated resistant to it.
Then protect what you've grown. Grain that goes into store damp grows mould and can develop aflatoxin, a poison, within days. Dry it hard first: bite a few kernels — if they crack cleanly rather than dent, the grain is dry enough, about 13% moisture, for safe storage (FAO; Plantwise). Even a debe (20-litre tin) of damp maize can spoil fast, so keep grain in a dry, raised store.
How do I protect my animals in the floods?
Move your herd to higher, drier ground before the storms. Floodwater breeds the mosquitoes that spread Rift Valley Fever, and East Africa's past El Niño floods have driven RVF outbreaks in cattle, sheep and goats — infected animals abort and the young often die (NOAA Climate.gov). Keep animals on dry ground, store clean water for them, and report sudden abortions or deaths to your vet early. RVF also passes to the people who handle sick animals, so anyone treating or slaughtering stock should cover cuts and wear gloves. Your herd is your biggest moving asset — protecting it, and the workers who run it, keeps the business standing.
Photo: Japhet Kweba / Pexels
Is a wet El Niño all bad for farmers?
No — handled well, a strong short-rains season is an opportunity. It fills your water pans, refreshes grazing, and can grow a bigger, better-selling crop than a normal year. The winners are the farmers who manage the water rather than letting it manage them: drain, lift, plant early, and dry your grain hard.
Your next step this week
Walk your land now and mark two things: which plots flood first, and where your higher, drier ground is. Move this season's planting and your animals' shelter to match — before the first big storm, not after. Then line up early-maturing seed while stock lasts.
